The coming 12 months is set to be a year of transformational and unpredictable change for New Zealand ICT, reports IDC. "The future of the telecommunications sector hangs in the balance, awaiting critical policy and commercial decisions that will begin a long-term deconstruction and reconstruction of the industry. All ICT markets will be impacted. At the same time, the current wave of disruptive technologies - mobile computing, cloud services and social networking - will mature from early adopter status," says Ullrich Loeffler, IDC New Zealand country manager.
Loeffler says all these make predicting the outcomes of 2011 a real challenge. “Change is incredibly rapid and multi-dimensional. Social network and consumer passion for mobile devices is transforming business priorities; fierce competitors are being forced into unlikely alliances to manage demand; the very nature of market leadership is being rewritten - and overlaying this is the fundamental rewriting of government policy and procurement in key areas.”
IDC believes that these factors, coupled with a subdued economic outlook and high exchange rate, means the focus for computing and communications in 2011 will be on cutting costs, managing margins and redefining business strategies in the face of competitive disruption.
The analyst firms sees the following key trends in the next 12 months:
1. The chief information officer (CIO) gets strategic: priorities will be driving the business value of technology, managing disruption and reforming IT governance.
2. Everything goes mobile: the mobile computing explosion will redefine devices, consumer behaviour, workplace practises and create a new applications battlefront.
3. Behind enemy lines: Consumer passion for disruptive devices and applications in the workplace will force IT departments to adapt and optimise.
4. The cloud fog dissipates: Cloud computing gains traction, but the approach will be 'best fit for purpose' with the focus on migrating, integrating, securing and consistently delivering services.
5. Strange bedfellows: Disruption will force ICT players into new partnerships and roles for growth, forcing them to reshape, recreate and reconcile business models.
6. The ultra-fast broadband debate: The myopic debate over who builds the national fibre network will shift to risks of industry restructuring, regulation and how to make it work.
7. The social enterprise: Social networking will mature - and innovative companies will use it to create a new social business model that empowers staff and transforms business approaches.
8. Government trims down to gear up: the new government public procurement programme drives shared services, providing better frontline services with less duplication.
9. Connected health services come of age: broadband initiatives, successful telemedicine trials, rapid mobile technology adoption and consumer acceptance means e-health adoption will reach a tipping point.
10. Rugby World Cup 2011: It is “Scrum-time” not “Try-time” for ICT - The event showcases local innovation and stimulates revenues - but pre-match preparation and execution will be critical.
IDC is forecasting steady but unspectacular ICT growth, with total revenues rising 3.2 percent to NZ$12.19 billion. The hardware sector is the strongest performer with revenues rising 10 percent to $2.57 billion, followed by software (up 9 percent to $1.05 billion) and IT services (up 3.6 percent to $2.95 billion).
IDC says telecommunications will shrink, however, by 0.8% to $5.6 billion as the squeeze on voice revenues offsets mobile and broadband growth.
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